Review of risk assessment status for air traffic

Henk Blom (1) , Jaroslav Krystul (2) , Pascal Lezaud (3) , G.J. (bert) Bakker (1) , Margriet B. Klompstra (1) , Bart Klein Obbing (1) , Sybert H. Stroeve (1) , Hans H. de Jong (1)

1 NLR - National Aerospace Laboratory [Amsterdam]
2 Department of Applied Mathematics [Twente]
3 DGAC - Direction Générale de l'Aviation Civile

The objective of work package WP7 is to assess the A3 operations developed by work packages WP1 and WP2, through hazard identification and Monte Carlo simulation on accident risk as a function of traffic demand, to assess what traffic demand can safely be accommodated by this advanced operational concept, and to assess the efficiency of the flights. The accident risk levels assessed should be in the form of an expected value, a 95% uncertainty area, and a decomposition of the risk level over the main risk contributing sources. The latter verifies which of these sources should have been mitigated during the 2nd design cycle by the A4 concept. In order to accomplish this assessment through Monte Carlo simulation, the complementary aim of this WP is to further develop the innovative HYBRIDGE speed up approaches in rare event Monte Carlo simulation. The aim of the current report is to give a thorough review of risk assessment status for advanced air traffic operations.

Mots clés: Monte Carlo simulation; rare event; Feynman-Kac; Interacting particle systems; iFly; Splitting; risk assessment; stochastic hybrid systems; Petri net; palm measure; kramers equation

Domaines: Optimisation et contrôle [math.OC]

Henk Blom, Jaroslav Krystul, Pascal Lezaud, G.J. (bert) Bakker, Margriet B. Klompstra, et al.. Review of risk assessment status for air traffic. 2007. ⟨hal-00940849⟩