Speed uncertainty and speed regulation in conflict detection and resolution in Air Traffic Control
Résumé
With the predicted increase of air traffic volume, new air traffic management models are under investigation in order to increase airspace capacity and keep low delays while maintaining transportation safety standards. One of the tasks implied is to solve conflicts, i.e. maintain a sufficient separation between aircraft. Conflict resolution relies on conflict detection ; indeed predicting aircraft trajectories within a time window allows to detect the conflicts and apply avoidance measures. This approaches concerns both human control and models for automatic control resolution. The result of the conflict detection depends much on the uncertainty model, and especially on the level of uncertainty on aircraft trajectories. High uncertainty will lead to detect a high number of potential conflicts, and put a high workload on the monitoring and solving of conflicts, all the more than clusters of several conflicts are more likely to appear. On the other hand, too low uncertainty may ignore conflicts. In this paper, we will expose statistics, obtained by air traffic simulation using real traffic data, regarding potential conflict detection, based on a speed uncertainty model, with different uncertainty levels. Then we will discuss the interest of a precise speed prediction and of the introduction of simple speed regulation maneuvers in the early stages of conflict resolution, in order to ease the global conflict resolution process.
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