Airport Capacity Forecast : Short-term forecasting of runway capacity

Henk Hesselink (1) , Joyce Nibourg (1) , Ludovic d'Estampes (2) , Pascal Lezaud (3)

1 NLR - National Aerospace Laboratory [Amsterdam]
2 MAIAA-PROBA - Equipe MAIAA-PROBA
3 ENAC - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile

Airports expect major benefits from increasing predictability of the operation. This paper will investigate the use of forecast information to determine forecast airport capacity, which will allow airport stakeholders to optimize the use of their resources. The focus will be on forecasting runway capacity, at most airports the major factor for the overall airport capacity. The possibility to model forecast runway capacity, based on probabilistic inputs, will be investigated with a lead time up to two days. Inputs from meteorological services (wind speed, wind direction and visibility) are the major factors for determining which runways to use. Other inputs are runway availability, operational procedures and demand. The runway configuration of Amsterdam Airport Schiphol, with a complex layout of six runways, has been chosen for the evaluation. A large dataset, covering runway use of 2012 and half 2013, was used to evaluate the model, which forecasts runway configurations first and then calculates capacity forecasts. The paper will show that a high quality runway capacity forecast is feasible.

Domaines: Statistiques [math.ST]; Génie civil

Henk Hesselink, Joyce Nibourg, Ludovic d'Estampes, Pascal Lezaud. Airport Capacity Forecast : Short-term forecasting of runway capacity. SID 2014, 4th SESAR Innovation Days, Nov 2014, Madrid, Spain. ⟨hal-01330101⟩