Fuzzy Risk Assessment for Airport Strategic Planning

Elena Mihaela Capitanul (1) , Hamdan Alfazari (2) , Carlos Alberto Nunes Cosenza (3) , Walid El-Moudani (4) , Felix Mora-Camino (5)

1 MAIAA - ENAC - Laboratoire de Mathématiques Appliquées, Informatique et Automatique pour l'Aérien
2 Sohar university
3 COPPE-UFRJ - Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra de Pós-Graduação e Pesquisa de Engenharia
4 LIU - Lebanese International University
5 ENAC - Ecole Nationale de l'Aviation Civile

Airports are asset-intensive businesses that require a large amount of time to recover the significant financial investments in specific infrastructure such as runways and terminals. Airports investors must perform strategic moves based on calculated risks before taking investment decisions. This communication puts forward a new approach for airport investment risk assessment. The approach takes explicitly into account the degree of uncertainty in activity levels prediction and proposes milestones for the different stages of the project for minimizing risk. Uncertainty is represented through fuzzy dual theory and risk management is performed using dynamic programming

Mots clés: airports; financial risk assessment; uncertainty; fuzzy dual; dynamic programming

Domaines: Optimisation et contrôle [math.OC]

Elena Mihaela Capitanul, Hamdan Alfazari, Carlos Alberto Nunes Cosenza, Walid El-Moudani, Felix Mora-Camino. Fuzzy Risk Assessment for Airport Strategic Planning. 18th International Conference on Aerospace Engineering and Management, Feb 2016, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. ⟨hal-01424284⟩