Metaheuristic Approach to Probabilistic Aircraft Conflict Detection and Resolution Considering Ensemble Prediction Systems

Abstract : This paper presents a methodology to tackle theproblem of strategic aircraft conflict detection and resolution, upto 60 minutes in advance, considering wind and temperatureuncertainties. The problem of hundreds of en-route aircraftflying multi-segmented 2D trajectories is considered. The weatheruncertainty is retrieved from Ensemble Prediction Systems. Theconflict detection is based on ensemble trajectory prediction,and is performed using an efficient grid-based procedure. Ametaheuristic approach is developed to solve the conflicts, basedon simulated annealing, which generates resolution trajectoriesby modifying the location of the route waypoints (vectoring),with the aim of lowering the probabilities of the conflicts whilealso minimising the deviation from the nominal paths. Realisticapplications in scenarios with different traffic densities arepresented.